The cryptocurrency market has entered a stabilization phase, but a broad altcoin rally remains unlikely until Bitcoin breaks its previous price records, according to Wintermute analyst Jasper De Maere. While altcoins are poised for upward momentum, their recovery appears to be waiting for Bitcoin to lead the charge.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Peak

According to De Maere, a strategist at Wintermute’s OTC desk, market sentiment remains more cautious than bullish. Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading steadily in the $65,000 to $67,000 range despite recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows. While this is significantly below its all-time high, the consolidation could be setting the stage for a new rally.

In a recent report, De Maere noted that the market structure looks cleaner and the macroeconomic environment is supportive. “This looks less like stagnation and more like a turning phase,” he wrote, suggesting the market “feels ready to build again.”

Altcoins Show Uneven Gains

Despite a positive shift in the macro landscape, crypto recently underperformed other major asset classes. This marks a reversal from just a few weeks prior when Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins, was the top-performing asset class.

The performance within the altcoin sector has also been uneven, signaling a lack of strong conviction from investors. In a recent weekly analysis, large-cap tokens saw modest gains of only 0.7%, while mid-cap tokens performed best with a 14.8% increase.

A breakdown by sector revealed similar disparities. DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) posted the biggest gains, while layer 1 networks, gaming tokens, and memecoins lagged behind. This mixed performance underscores the idea that a widespread and sustained altcoin rally is not yet underway. De Maere’s analysis concludes that such a move is unlikely until Bitcoin surges to a new all-time high.

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