Solana’s price is holding steady below the key $200 level as traders cautiously re-enter the market following a recent downturn. While the token has rebounded from its weekly low of $173, a broader look shows it remains down significantly over the past week and month, pulling back from its recent peaks.

At the time of writing, SOL traded around $196, marking an 8% increase over the last 24 hours. This recovery follows a sharp market crash on October 10 that sent the asset tumbling. The renewed activity is reflected in trading volumes, with spot volume climbing 14% to $12 billion and derivatives volume rising 36% to $32.4 billion. According to data from CoinGlass, futures open interest also saw a 6% increase, suggesting that traders are gradually reopening positions after the recent sell-off.

DEX Volume and TVL Tell a Different Story

While trading activity shows signs of life, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. According to DefiLlama, Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume has been in steady decline since the market crash, falling from $8.37 billion on October 10 to $5.84 billion by October 12. Similarly, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on the network dropped from $12.5 billion to a low of $10 billion before recovering slightly to just over $11 billion.

Interestingly, despite the dip in DEX metrics, Solana’s stablecoin market capitalization has grown by 8% over the past week, reaching $16.2 billion. This suggests a significant amount of capital may be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer market signals before being deployed into assets.

Upcoming Catalysts Could Reignite Momentum

Several key developments on the horizon could influence Solana’s price trajectory. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide on a potential spot SOL exchange-traded fund (ETF) between October 28 and November 15. Prediction markets currently place the approval odds at over 90%. A favorable decision could unlock substantial institutional inflows, similar to the market reaction that followed the approval of Ethereum ETFs.

On the technical front, network upgrades are set to enhance performance. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade aims to boost transaction finality to approximately 150 milliseconds, enabling faster on-chain trading. Additionally, Jump Crypto’s Firedancer validator client, scheduled for public testing in late October, is designed to improve network reliability and attract new decentralized finance liquidity.

Technical Outlook Remains Neutral

For now, Solana remains in a consolidation phase below the $200 resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 indicates neutral momentum. Several short-term moving averages are clustered in the $210–$220 range, acting as a ceiling for any immediate price advances.

Longer-term moving averages offer a support base, with the 200-day and 100-day averages sitting near $186 and $198, respectively. If SOL can hold above the $185–$190 support zone and eventually break through the mid-$200s, it could attract fresh buying pressure. However, a failure to maintain support in the $170–$180 area could lead to a deeper consolidation in the coming weeks.