Public Metrics No Longer Tell the Whole Story

The Bitcoin Lightning Network is undergoing a critical transformation that makes its true adoption level increasingly difficult to measure. Once a key indicator of growth, the network’s public capacity is becoming less reliable as major exchanges and services shift to private channels, creating a disconnect between observable data and real economic activity.

This trend is driven by leading exchanges, wallets, and merchants who now frequently handle transactions using custodial and other off-chain solutions. As a result, the network’s publicly tracked liquidity—measured by open channels and the collateral within them—has stagnated even as practical usage continues to climb.

According to a recent analysis, this evolution reveals a widening gap between on-chain statistics and the actual transaction flows occurring on Bitcoin’s second-layer network.

Current data shows the public Lightning capacity at 4,132 BTC, or about $453 million. While this marks a recovery from a low of 3,600 BTC in August, the figure still trails numbers recorded earlier in 2024, further highlighting how public metrics don’t capture the full scope of the network’s expansion.