Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes an overlooked technical upgrade for Ethereum scheduled for this December could position the asset to lead a major crypto market recovery in 2026. In a series of posts, Hougan argued that investors are currently missing the significance of advancing “value capture” mechanisms in major digital assets, including ETH, UNI, and XRP.

Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade

Hougan specifically pointed to Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade, which is estimated to go live around December 3. He described the update as a fundamental shift that strengthens the network’s long-term revenue potential. According to Hougan, Fusaka will introduce a minimum fee for recording data from Layer 2 networks, a change he projects could increase revenue capture for the blockchain by five to ten times.

“ETH is also taking steps to increase value capture,” Hougan stated. “Surprisingly, almost no one is talking about this.” He anticipates that the market will begin to recognize the positive impacts of the upgrade in the coming months, calling it an “under-appreciated catalyst” and a key reason why Ethereum could lead the next market rebound.

A Broader Trend in Value Capture

The Bitwise CIO emphasized that Ethereum isn’t alone in improving its economic design. He cited Uniswap’s governance token, UNI, as the “most obvious” example of a broader trend. The Uniswap community is actively discussing the activation of its fee switch, which, if approved, would direct a portion of trading fees to burn UNI tokens. Hougan believes this could eventually push UNI into the top 10 tokens by market capitalization.

He also noted growing experimentation within the XRP ecosystem, where the community is considering ideas like staking that would alter the economic incentives for token holders. Across these projects, Hougan sees a clear trend: the level of “value capture in digital assets is up only from here.”

A Shifting Regulatory Climate

According to Hougan, this shift is partly driven by an evolving regulatory landscape that allows projects to adopt more robust economic models. He explained that many existing tokens were created in an era of regulatory uncertainty, leading them to default to “vague governance-style design choices.” As regulatory clarity improves, he argues, these initial designs are being unwound in favor of stronger token economics, an effect he expects will become more apparent in 2026.

Current Market Headwinds

Hougan’s optimistic forecast comes as the digital asset market remains under significant pressure. Market analyst Valdrin Tahiri noted that the crypto market has collapsed by 30% since its October all-time highs. While acknowledging a recent bounce, Tahiri described the overall outlook as severe, with the market’s decline being swift and marked by weak retracements. He suggested the coming weeks will reveal whether the recent recovery is a sign of genuine strength or another trap before a deeper downturn.

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