Bitcoin recently faced a significant correction, retesting the psychological $100,000 support zone and causing widespread liquidations. While the asset has seen a modest rebound, it remains nearly 19% below its all-time high of $126,198. According to a popular market analyst known as PlanD, a sustained recovery depends on Bitcoin holding a critical technical indicator.

The Critical 50-Week EMA Support

In a November 7 analysis, PlanD noted that Bitcoin’s bounce from the $100,700 level might signal a market bottom. While prices could still dip below this point, the analyst stressed the importance of a weekly close above this crucial support to maintain a bullish outlook. The significance of the $100,700 price zone lies in its alignment with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key metric that has often signaled market trend shifts since 2022.

During the current bull run, Bitcoin has tested the 50-week EMA three times, with each test resulting in a price bounce to higher levels. The recent dip marks another retest of this support, which PlanD describes as essential for preserving the market’s bullish structure and setting the stage for a potential rebound.

Short and Long-Term Price Outlook

If market bulls successfully defend the 50-week EMA, the analyst projects a move toward a short-term target between $116,000 and $120,000. Looking further ahead, PlanD’s analysis identifies two larger patterns. An ascending channel that began in late 2024 suggests a possible trajectory toward $176,000. In parallel, a broader cup-and-handle formation developing since 2023 points to an even more ambitious long-term target of around $340,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $102,277, down 0.23% over the past 24 hours. The prevailing bearish sentiment is reflected in its weekly and monthly losses of 6.98% and 16.23%, respectively. The dip below $100,000 was a pivotal event, leading to a drop in the average investor’s realized price to below $50,000 and causing top buyers to incur significant losses. These events underscore the immense psychological importance of the $100,000 level in the current market.

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