Bitcoin staged a significant 17% recovery last week, climbing from a low near $82,000 on November 21 to test the $93,000 level. However, the rally stalled below the key $95,000 resistance mark, as renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs failed to ignite a decisive breakout and a broader sense of caution settled over the market.

Institutional Investors Tap the Brakes

Despite a combined $221 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs between November 25 and November 28, the underlying data reveals a more hesitant institutional stance. A heavy outflow of $117 million from BlackRock’s fund stood out, signaling that the world’s largest asset manager may be setting a cautious tone for other major players.

This sentiment is echoed by the activity of major corporate holders. MicroStrategy, a prominent Bitcoin accumulator, paused its acquisitions last week, ending a 14-week streak of consistent buying that began in August. The company’s last confirmed purchase was on November 17, when it added 8,178 BTC to its treasury, bringing its total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Prediction Markets Signal Doubt

The cautious momentum is also reflected in prediction markets, where traders are pricing in lower odds of a substantial rally in the near future. On the Kalshi platform, which is currently facing a lawsuit over alleged market manipulation, the probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of 2025 has dropped. The odds fell by 11% on November 29, while the chances of the price closing the year below $80,000 rose by 8% to 36%.

Bitcoin Price Forecast at a Critical Juncture

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is consolidating after its sharp recovery from the $82,705 support level. The price is currently pinned below $92,971, with the Keltner Channel mid-band creating a compression that often precedes a major directional move. While momentum signals show early signs of improvement, they are not yet confirmed. The MACD line has crossed into positive territory, and the Woodies CCI indicates renewed buyer interest.

For the bulls, a decisive daily close above the $95,000 resistance is critical. Such a move would re-establish positive momentum and open a path toward the $100,000 psychological level. However, a failure to hold the $90,000 support could trigger another wave of selling. Consecutive daily closes below $89,500 would likely weaken buyer confidence and could lead to a correction toward the $85,880 support zone.

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