A High-Stakes Bet Against Bitcoin

A prominent early Bitcoin investor, sometimes referred to as the “Trump insider,” is making significant moves that have captured the market’s attention. The investor recently transferred 3,003 BTC to Binance, building a total short position of 2,100 BTC valued at approximately $227 million. This action suggests a strong belief that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be short-lived.

Adding to this bearish stance, on October 21, 2025, the investor placed an additional $234 million short position on Bitcoin using the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. This new position faces liquidation if Bitcoin’s price rises above $123,000. Such a large bet against the market has led traders to speculate that a price correction could be imminent, possibly retesting the $100,000 support level or lower.

A History of Profitable Bearish Calls

This investor’s track record is a key reason for the market’s unease. During the U.S.-China tariff dispute under the Trump administration, he reportedly earned $200 million by shorting Bitcoin. This past success lends weight to his current strategy, making other traders cautious about a potential repeat scenario.

The scale of this whale’s influence is substantial. At one point, his total short exposure reached nearly 3,440 BTC, worth around $392 million, demonstrating his capacity to impact market sentiment. His consistent actions indicate he is positioning for a downturn rather than expecting the current upward trend to continue.

Market Sentiment Hangs in the Balance

The timing of these trades has fueled a debate across the crypto community. While some analysts believe the recent rally has exhausted its momentum, others remain optimistic about further gains. The whale’s bet serves as a significant counter-narrative to the bullish sentiment.

Current market indicators reflect this uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index is at a neutral 50, and Bitcoin’s market dominance is stable at around 60%, suggesting a balanced but cautious outlook. On the other hand, growing institutional involvement, highlighted by products like BlackRock’s Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), points toward long-term market maturation and potentially reduced volatility.

Uncertainty Ahead for Bitcoin’s Price

Despite Bitcoin’s relatively stable price action following its recent halving, the risk of a major move remains. This large short position introduces another layer of uncertainty. If Bitcoin fails to overcome key resistance levels and its rally falters, the investor’s bearish prediction could prove correct.

The central question is whether the recent recovery is a temporary rebound or the beginning of a sustained rally. With growing institutional interest providing a foundation for stability, the next few weeks will likely reveal whether this whale’s bet pays off or if bullish momentum will drive prices to new highs.

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