Market Appears to Be Pricing in a Recession

Bitcoin’s current market behavior is signaling an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity reminiscent of the March 2020 pandemic-driven crash, according to André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe. In a post on November 28, 2025, he suggested that the pessimism driving recent sell-offs may be overextended.

Dragosch argued that Bitcoin is trading as if a severe global downturn is already underway, effectively “pricing in” a recessionary environment. He compared the current sentiment to the bearish outlook of 2022, a year marked by aggressive interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the collapse of FTX. “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch stated, referencing the period when Bitcoin’s price fell from around $8,000 to below $5,000 amid worldwide panic.

Recent market activity reflects this weakened sentiment. Over the past month, Bitcoin has declined by more than 17%. After reaching an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, the asset entered a sustained pullback, accelerated by a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. The downturn worsened in mid-November as Bitcoin lost the key psychological support level of $100,000. Although the price briefly fell below $90,000 on November 20, buyers stepped in, suggesting a potential market floor.

Despite the recent weakness, Dragosch believes the market has likely absorbed most of the negative news. He anticipates that global growth could soon improve as previous monetary stimulus circulates through the economy, mirroring the expansion that followed the COVID crisis. “I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” he concluded.

Cathie Wood Foresees an End to Liquidity Squeeze

Sharing a similarly optimistic outlook, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has predicted that the liquidity crunch affecting both crypto and artificial intelligence (AI) markets will reverse soon. She points to three Federal Reserve policy shifts expected before the end of the year as the primary catalysts.

During ARK’s November market webinar, Wood explained that temporary liquidity constraints are set to ease. She anticipates the Federal Reserve will conclude its quantitative tightening program at its December 10 meeting, which would immediately relieve one source of market pressure. Furthermore, with the recent conclusion of the government shutdown, funds held in the Treasury General Account are expected to return to circulation.

In a sign of its confidence, ARK Invest has been actively acquiring crypto-related equities during the market slump. The firm recently deployed over $93 million in a single day to purchase shares of various digital asset companies.