Fundstrat Analyst Predicts an End to the Four-Year Cycle

Crypto strategist Tom Lee believes Bitcoin adoption has the potential to grow by as much as 200 times its current level. Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week, the Fundstrat Global Advisors head of research also predicted that the market is poised to break from its traditional four-year cycle, signaling a major shift in historical price patterns.

Despite a recent market downturn that has seen crypto underperform relative to traditional assets, Lee remains confident in the sector’s long-term prospects. He acknowledged the recent pessimism, noting it has been a “rough run since October,” but insisted that the industry’s best years are still ahead.

A Path to Massive Growth

Lee’s projection for a 200-fold increase in adoption is based on a simple comparison. He pointed out that there are only 4.4 million Bitcoin wallets holding more than $10,000. In contrast, nearly 900 million individuals globally have over $10,000 in retirement accounts. If even a small portion of these savings pools were to allocate to Bitcoin, it would represent a monumental expansion of the user base.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Over?

A cornerstone of Lee’s presentation was the argument that Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle, heavily influenced by its halving events, is no longer a reliable market framework. He suggested the coming weeks could mark a definitive departure from this historical rhythm. According to Lee, the recent market weakness isn’t a cyclical feature but is instead driven by structural factors.

He attributed the sell-off primarily to deleveraging within the crypto ecosystem, drawing parallels to the environment following the collapse of the FTX exchange. This contrasts with past cycles, where downturns were more closely tied to Bitcoin’s programmatic supply reduction.

Tokenization Will Define 2025

Looking ahead, Lee identified tokenization as the defining trend for 2025. He stated that major financial institutions are actively planning to move a vast range of real-world assets onto blockchain infrastructure, a market he estimates at nearly a quadrillion dollars. He argued that stablecoins served as Ethereum’s “ChatGPT moment,” demonstrating to Wall Street the immense profitability of tokenizing traditional assets like the U.S. dollar.

He views Ethereum as central to this evolution, calling it “the future of finance” and the key platform for the tokenization trend. As evidence of institutional interest, he highlighted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has already become one of the firm’s top five highest fee-generating products.

Attractive Risk-Reward Despite Pullback

In separate comments, Lee reaffirmed that core blockchain fundamentals, including wallet growth and on-chain activity, continue to strengthen despite falling prices. In his view, this disconnect makes the “risk/reward attractive for Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

This sentiment was echoed by Fundstrat Managing Director Mark Newton, who suggested the pullback has created a constructive opportunity for buyers. While cautioning about near-term uncertainty ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting, Newton stated, “If you have a two-month window, I think crypto is a great risk-reward here.”