Bitcoin is approaching a critical resistance zone that could determine its trajectory for the remainder of the cycle. According to crypto analyst Trader Mayne, the coming days are pivotal, as the market will either reclaim bullish momentum or see its recent rally fade into another lower high.

The Critical Resistance Zone

After establishing a cycle low around $80,000, Bitcoin has successfully climbed back to its yearly open. This move broke what the analyst described as an aggressive downtrend, but the most significant challenge lies ahead. The price is now testing a heavy confluence zone between $98,000 and $100,000, which aligns with a key daily downtrend line and a former price floor.

This area represents the series of lower highs that have defined Bitcoin’s broader market structure. A decisive break above this level would be the first meaningful shift in the high-time-frame trend since the all-time high near $125,000.

Bullish Signs Await Confirmation

Mayne noted that recent price action has been “relatively constructive.” The market is forming higher lows, and a bullish structure break is developing on the four-hour chart. However, he emphasized that this momentum requires validation. To confirm a genuine shift in control, Bitcoin still needs to print a higher high on the same chart.

Shifting Probabilities and Cycle Catalysts

The analyst currently assigns a 70% to 80% probability that Bitcoin will form a lower high rather than push to a new all-time high. But he suggests those odds could drop to a more balanced 50-60% if bulls successfully reclaim the $98,000 level and break the long-term downtrend.

According to Mayne, such a move would also confirm the weekly cycle low. This could set the stage for what he believes would be the final major rally of the four-year cycle before a bear market begins in 2026. He pointed to several potential catalysts, including the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, renewed liquidity expectations, and positive sentiment shifts like Vanguard enabling purchases of Bitcoin ETFs.

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