Bitcoin’s performance in the latter half of 2025 is showing a nearly identical pattern to its 2022 bear market bottom, reaching a 98% correlation on monthly timeframes. This trend has left many investors concerned, especially after the asset pulled back 36% from its all-time highs when a major rally was widely anticipated.

According to analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson, the correlation between the second half of 2025 and the same period in 2022 is 80% on daily charts and an almost perfect 98% on a monthly basis. November has been a particularly poor month for Bitcoin, ranking in the bottom 10% of daily price movements since 2015. If this historical pattern continues, a significant price recovery may not materialize until the first quarter of the following year.

Shifting Tides in Market Sentiment?

While the price chart suggests a prolonged downturn, broader market indicators hint at a potential shift in investor sentiment. A turnaround in the macro environment could still fuel a “Santa rally” for risk assets before the year concludes. Despite cryptocurrencies experiencing a sharper decline than stocks recently, signs of recovery are emerging.

Data from Bloomberg and JPMorgan reveals massive capital flows into U.S. equities, with funds attracting $900 billion since November 2024. A staggering $450 billion of that total has arrived in just the last five months. This surge in equity investment often signals a renewed appetite for risk, which could extend to the crypto market.

This trend is already reflected in the latest data for U.S. spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). During Thanksgiving week, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $220 million, while their Ether counterparts brought in $312 million. These figures suggest that the recent wave of institutional selling may be subsiding, potentially setting the stage for a more positive outlook.

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