Bitcoin is approaching the Thanksgiving holiday with renewed momentum, climbing more than 13% from recent lows near $80,000 to trade above $91,000. While the US holiday has historically been an unkind period for the cryptocurrency, this year’s pre-holiday rally is giving traders hope that 2025 could be an exception to the bearish trend.

A Holiday History of Declines

Historical data still weighs on market sentiment. According to analyst Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin’s average performance on Thanksgiving is a 0.8% loss. The record shows that the asset has only posted gains on the holiday twice in the last decade, with significant declines recorded in 2018 and 2020.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted that Bitcoin has once again followed a familiar pattern of a strong rally on the Wednesday before the holiday. He observed that this strength has often been followed by weakness on Thanksgiving itself. However, with Bitcoin trading just 4% below its highest daily close of $95,000 from last November, the milestone of $100,000 is back in focus. “We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving,” analyst Terence Michael wrote, encouraging traders to remain vigilant.

Key Levels and Analyst Outlooks

While some are optimistic, other analysts are taking a more cautious stance. Analyst Jelle highlighted a resistance zone between $91,000 and $93,000, warning that with US markets closed for the holiday, prices could drift sideways. “Expecting chop below the resistance until after the holiday,” he commented.

On-chain signals also suggest potential weakness. The analytics firm Glassnode warns that Bitcoin’s market structure remains fragile after losing its 50-week moving average and key cost-basis levels. The firm noted that thinning liquidity and conviction, similar to conditions in early 2022, could lead to further downside. If selling pressure mounts, Glassnode suggests Bitcoin could retest its “true market mean” around $81,000. For bulls to regain control, buyers would need to reclaim the $100,000 to $105,000 range, a critical area for long-term trend support.

Broader Market Liquidity on the Horizon

Looking at the wider economic landscape, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has forecasted a reversal of the liquidity squeeze that has been affecting both crypto and AI markets. During ARK’s November market webinar, she identified three temporary constraints that she expects to ease, driven by Federal Reserve policy shifts and reopened government spending.

Wood anticipates that the Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening program at its December 10 meeting, which would immediately relieve one pressure point. Additionally, the recent conclusion of the government shutdown is expected to return funds from the Treasury General Account back into circulation. Demonstrating her firm’s conviction, ARK Invest deployed over $93 million in a single day this week to purchase shares in digital asset companies.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or any other sort of advice. You should not treat any of the website’s content as such. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.