Veteran analyst Tom Lee has scaled back his highly optimistic year-end prediction for Bitcoin, lowering his target from $250,000 to a more conservative price above $100,000. He attributes this change to a recent market crash caused by a technical issue, while also suggesting that growing gold reserves held by stablecoin issuers could provide a long-term price floor for the asset.

A More Cautious Outlook

In a recent interview, Lee stated it’s “still very likely” that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 before the end of the year and could potentially even set a new high. This marks a significant shift from his previous, more aggressive $250,000 target, which he had maintained through early October. Despite the reduced forecast, Lee remains optimistic, believing some of Bitcoin’s “best days are going to happen before year-end.”

The ‘Glitch’ Behind the Crash

Lee explained that his revised outlook stems from the market crash on October 10. He points to a technical “glitch” that triggered a cascade of forced liquidations across the market. The event is widely understood to be the temporary de-pegging of USDe, a synthetic dollar from Ethena Labs, on the Binance exchange, where its price briefly plummeted to $0.65.

Because the exchange’s internal price oracle registered the faulty price as legitimate, it automatically liquidated the positions of traders using USDe as collateral. Lee noted that this event “wiped out” nearly two million crypto accounts, many of which were profitable just moments before the incident.

Gold Purchases as a Price Support

In a separate analysis, Lee highlighted an emerging trend that he believes is positive for Bitcoin’s long-term value: the increasing acquisition of gold by stablecoin issuers. He claimed that these companies have become the largest global buyers of gold and the “singular driver of higher prices” for the metal since early 2026.

His comments came after reports that Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, had become the world’s largest private holder of gold, surpassing several central banks. Far from being a bearish signal for crypto, Lee argues this trend helps establish a “higher future price” floor for Bitcoin.

Conflicting Signals in the Market

Lee’s earlier bullishness was shared by other industry figures. Analyst Mike Alfred suggested Bitcoin could surge to between $150,000 and $200,000, while Arthur Hayes forecasted a potential year-end rally as high as $250,000.

However, the recent market slump has tempered much of that optimism. Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 20% in the last month, breaking below the key $90,000 level for nearly a week before a recent recovery. Some analysts now point to technical indicators that suggest a longer-term bear market has begun. According to analyst Valdrin Tahiri, the recent breakdown suggests Bitcoin’s bull cycle has ended. His projections place Bitcoin at $73,000 by the end of 2026 and $57,000 by the end of 2027. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $91,466.

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