Bitcoin’s price is entering a consolidation phase after its October peak, with the market now closely monitoring whether buyers can defend the crucial support zone between $91,000 and $97,000. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $102,292, reflecting a 1.3% dip over the last day and a more significant 16% decline over the past month. The price now sits about 18% below its all-time high of $126,080, which was set in early October.

Despite the price drop, trading activity has picked up. Spot volume increased by 14.8% to $69.5 billion in the last 24 hours, while futures trading volume rose 8% to $107.5 billion. At the same time, open interest in futures markets grew by 1.4% to $69.6 billion. A rise in open interest during a price decline often suggests traders are opening new short positions, which could extend the current downward trend.

MVRV Ratio Signals Buyer Fatigue, Not a Reversal

An analysis from CryptoQuant on November 6 highlights a bearish divergence in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric that tracks the average unrealized profit of all coins in circulation. Throughout the current cycle, the MVRV ratio has consistently found support in the 1.7 to 1.8 range, acting as a “profit floor” where selling pressure typically subsides. A retest of this floor would align with a Bitcoin price between $91,800 and $97,200.

The current divergence shows that while Bitcoin’s price rose earlier in the cycle, unrealized profit margins have been shrinking. This indicates that buyers are growing more cautious, but it doesn’t necessarily signal a cycle top. A similar divergence appeared in 2017 just before Bitcoin made its final parabolic move. Further supporting this cautious sentiment, data shows corporate Bitcoin accumulation slowed significantly in October, with firms purchasing 14,400 BTC compared to 38,035 BTC in September.

Technical Outlook Remains Cautious

The short-term technical picture reinforces a cautious outlook, as Bitcoin continues to trade below all major moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 37, reflecting a cooling market rather than one that is deeply oversold. While the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and momentum indicators show early signs of stabilization, the MACD indicator remains negative, confirming that downward pressure persists.

Looking ahead, a decisive break above $105,800 could restore upside momentum for Bitcoin. However, a failure to hold the $97,000 support level would likely open the door for a deeper correction toward the $92,000 region, a level that also contains a significant, unfilled price gap on the CME futures chart.

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